In light of recent events, we need to continue the dialogue about Iran now more than ever. For every minute the news channels play tributes to a man known for his relationships with young boys, another political prisoner sitting in an Iranian jail cell has a lower chance of being released under international pressure.
I’m going to take a look at this from different perspectives to explain what should have and could be done. The way things are going, I foresee a human rights situation reminiscent to North Korea, with similar international implications.
The protesters are doing what they can and it’s hard to criticize that, but there are certain things they should focus on. The first is to clearly document all offenses in ways that are difficult to take out of context. There needs to be a clear list of dead, wounded, and imprisoned with as much evidence collected as possible. For every stone thrown, there should be someone videotaping it. As for what should have been done, when Neda was shot, mourning should have been carried out in the form of major rioting. Let us not forget that for all of the historical importance we put on Martin Luther King, Jr., Rosa Parks, et al. in the Civil Rights Movement, the real changes followed suspiciously close to the race riots.
Mousavi is at the apex of his life and historical importance. Humans naturally value their safety, but he has a chance to be more than a failed, politically persecuted (relatively) moderate politician. He has all of the world and the Iranian populace watching him, so he should take his chances. He is in the best position to force Khamenei’s hand. If he foments the Iranian populace, Khamenei can try his best to limit his access to any sort of media (which I assume is already the case), arrest him to make that limitation absolute, or martyr him, as it would be called. The government is already arresting all of his friends, so why should he think they would be afraid to do the same to him? The only way he can hope to continue his political career and cultural relevancy is if he acts now to change things. His milquetoast statements make Mike Wallace look like Abbie Hoffman and don’t endear him to anyone.
Khamenei made one mistake after another. He’s right to think he’s untouchable by the West, but he’s removing a certain level of ambiguity from the mix. I, along with many others, was under the impression that there was a certain level of checks and balances within the Iranian political system, and that Ahmedinejad was a reckless, hardline face for a (relatively) more moderate and calculating Khamenei, which has proven not to be the case. Also, Iran’s position on human rights and their reactions to internal and external pressure has been cemented. Whereas before, people could argue how Western and moderate Iran really is, Iran should now be seen as an unreasonable and unrelenting enemy to the West and its ideals, for whatever that’s worth. Khamenei should have let Mousavi win; it was no skin off his back. It would have done well for Iran’s soft power while still promoting its same major interests (namely, nuclear). The least that could have been done is make the fraud not so obvious. He could even have called for a reelection or recount and just repeated the fraud with less audacity. Given that he’s been so stupidly stubborn about this, I bet he’s gleefully doing the moonwalk right about now.
I’ll skip what the Western public could be doing because, honestly, it’s a lost cause.
The big question is about what Obama should do. I’m rather heavy-handed about human rights issues, as they strike me as the backbone to just military action, so my natural inclination is to do as much as allowed by the situation. I would use back channels to threaten Iran, and if the response is less than optimal, I would send Israel in to tactically bomb a few of Iran’s military and nuclear targets. We’re friends with Israel for a reason. The Iranian protesters don’t want some statement condemning authoritarianism; they want concrete help. Without it, they’re going to be crushed. Supporting the protesters in any way other than what I outlined would eventually be used against America. Dealing with Iran through this issue is Obama’s best chance to successfully rebalance the region in our favor. It’s also a big risk, but that’s the nature of the game. Alternatively, Obama can sit on his hands and hope the nuclear issue will be inherited by his successor, which will be great for Obama and horrible for America, the West, and the Middle East.
